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Artificial Intelligence and Singularity: Expert Opinions on the Future of AGI
As we continue to make strides in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), one concept that has been gaining momentum is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Unlike traditional AI systems, AGI aims to replicate the human-like ability to learn, reason and adapt in any given situation. In other words, AGI seeks to create a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human can do. This level of sophistication is still far from being achieved, but experts predict that once we create AGI, it will be a major turning point in human history, with implications far beyond what we can currently imagine. In this article, we'll dive into what experts are saying about AGI and what it could mean for the future of humanity.
When will AGI became reality?
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a concept that is being discussed by both tech experts and laypeople alike. Everyone has an opinion on when AGI will become a reality, but not all opinions are equal. To gain insight into the current state of AGI predictions, let’s take a look at some of the most prominent people in the tech industry and their expectations for when we can expect to see AGI come to fruition.
In a 2016 study by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller, the top 100 authors in artificial intelligence were surveyed. The scientists were asked to provide their probability estimates for when we might see high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) at the 10%, 50%, and 90% levels. The data collected is as follows:
At a 10% probability, the median year for HLMI to exist is 2024, with a mean year of 2034.
At a 50% probability, the median year for HLMI to exist is 2050, with a mean year of 2072.
At a 90% probability, the median year for HLMI to exist is 2070, with a mean year of 2168.
These results indicate that the experts surveyed believe there is a significant chance that HLMI will emerge in the next few decades, and there is a wide range of opinions on when this will happen.
However, at the time of the study (2016), experts were pessimistic about humanity achieving HLMI. If we compare this data with current predictions of experts, we can say that the current hype and achievements have made them more confident about advancements in AI.
Current state of predictions
Rob Bensinger (MIRI) - Prediction: 2023-2080
Rob Bensinger is a prominent writer and researcher in the field of artificial intelligence and ethics. He has contributed extensively to various projects, including the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, and is known for his work on the long-term impacts of AI and the potential risks associated with its development. Bensinger is highly respected for his thoughtful and nuanced approach to exploring these complex and controversial issues. He believes that we will be able to create powerful AI systems within the next two decades. According to their tweet, AI could be possible as early as 2023. This prediction makes them the most optimistic of all futurists, as they believe AGI may emerge sometime between 2023-2080 but likely within 10 years.
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) - Prediction: 2028-2034
Cathie Wood is an American investment fund manager and the founder of ARK Invest. She is important figure in the world of finance and is known for her bold investments in disruptive technologies, such as robotics, artificial intelligence, and genomics. Wood has been widely recognized for her success in identifying innovative and high-growth companies. In a tweet, she said that breakthroughs in AGI could happen within 6-12 years and this could accelerate the growth of GDP from 3-5% per year to 30-50% per year.
Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder and chief scientist) - Prediction: 2028-2040 (10% to 90%)
Shane Legg is a renowned artificial intelligence researcher and co-founder of DeepMind which was acquired by Google in 2014. In a tweet, he clarified that his comment about AGI being possible by 2025 was just an offhand remark and his more serious prediction is a 50% probability of AGI by 2028 and 90% by 2040, a prediction he has held since 1999 and repeated in many places.
Ray Kurzweil (Google) – Prediction: ~2029
Ray Kurzweil works with Google’s engineering team building machine learning systems to improve language-processing models and even though he has been known for his overly optimistic predictions. He is also a prominent futurist and inventor known for his work in artificial intelligence and transhumanism. He has made many predictions about the future of technology, including the belief that we could see AI pass the Turing test by 2029.
Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink) – Prediction: ~2029
Elon Musk is a well-known entrepreneur, inventor, and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Recently he has shifted his focus towards other areas such as artificial intelligence both through Tesla autonomous cars as well as with Neuralink. He is known for his ambitious plans to revolutionize the transportation industry and colonize Mars. In his tweet, Musk expresses his belief that AGI could be developed by 2029, which he considers a pivotal year.
John Carmack (Keen Technologies, Oculus VR) - Prediction: ~2029
John Carmack is a well-known American computer programmer and video game developer. In 2013, Carmack left id Software to take on the role of CTO at Oculus VR a company dedicated to the development of virtual reality technology. At Oculus Carmack became increasingly interested in artificial general intelligence. In 2022, Carmack left Oculus to start his own company, Keen Technologies, which is focused on developing AGI. In a recent interview he stated that he sees a 60% chance to achieve AGI by 2029.
Vernor Vinge (Mathematics Professor, Sci-Fi Author) - Prediction: 2005-2030
Vernor Vinge is a science fiction author and mathematician who is best known for his concept of the technological singularity, which he described in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era." In the essay, Vinge predicted that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) would lead to a point in the future where the rate of technological progress would become so rapid that it would be impossible to predict what would happen next. He believed that this singularity would occur within the next 30 years, sometime between 2005 and 2030, and would be triggered by the development of greater-than-human intelligence. Vinge wrote: "I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years... I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030." Vinge also speculated that this greater-than-human intelligence could lead to the creation of still more intelligent entities at an even faster pace, leading to a future that is fundamentally different from anything we can imagine based on our human past.
As you can see from this overview, there are many different opinions among experts on when exactly general artificial intelligence will become available to us, most experts agree that AGI is likely to arrive in the coming years potentially before 2030. The possibility of AGI raises many questions about the future of technology and society.
Despite the different opinions on when AGI will arrive, it's clear that it has the potential to bring about significant changes in the world. AGI could transform entire industries and impact the job market by automating tasks that were once considered only possible for humans to perform. It could also bring new insights and discoveries to fields such as medicine and science, and may even help us solve some of the world's hardest problems.
It's clear that there's no unified consensus on this topic yet—and it may take some time before there ever will be one—but one thing's certain: We're living in exciting times! Whether it takes five years or fifty years until we reach general artificial intelligence remains to be seen, but either way it promises to bring about significant changes both technologically and socially across our world once it finally arrives. Until then stay hungry, stay futurish!